The year of the champion. That’s what 2024 has been in the UFC.
How so?There were 16 title fights this year, and in 11 of those, the defending champion walked out of the cage still holding onto the belt. That might not seem so noteworthy — world champions are expected to beat everyone else on the planet — but if you look back at recent history, you’ll notice that 2023 saw nine new champions crowned, and 2022 had seven. So, with just five UFC titlists losing their belts in ’24, the volatile world of MMA is finding stability at the highest level.
Who did not fare as well as the champs this year? Me.
For the past few Decembers, I’ve gazed into the future to offer ESPN readers a forecast of the coming year’s championship staying power. Sometimes my predictions of who will hold the title belts on the next New Year’s Eve have panned out. Other times, they’ve just been panned — like in 2024.
At the start of this year, these were the fighters I predicted would win UFC championships: Jiří Procházka, Khamzat Chimaev, Shavkat Rakhmonov, Cory Sandhagen, Erin Blanchfield and Valentina Shevchenko. My scorecard: wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong and kinda wrong. Yes, Shevchenko recaptured the women’s flyweight belt, but I predicted she would move up to bantamweight to claim gold. So, I’m counting that as an “L.”
I don’t need a calculator to figure out my batting average. For the first time in the three years I have been doing this exercise, I batted .000. Shohei Ohtani, I am not.
Undaunted, let’s step up to the plate again and take another swing. For 2025, I predict that there will be five new champions at the end of December. Here’s a rundown of where I see change and where I envision things remaining the same.
The titlists, they are a-changin’
1. Heavyweight: Tom Aspinall
Two things stand in the way of this coming true. First, Aspinall has to entice the reluctant champ, Jon Jones, into the cage. Second, he must defeat him. Both will be difficult. The first part is likely to happen, mainly because UFC CEO Dana White is in favor of the fight (finally) and won’t try to sell us another less compelling title bout like Jones vs. Stipe Miocic. So, if Jones, at age 37, still wants to fight, it will be against Aspinall.
Can the big Brit beat a legend whose only career blemish is a disqualification 15 years ago in a fight he was dominating? If any heavyweight can accomplish what longtime fight fans might view as impossible, it’s Aspinall. He’s big, strong and dangerous everywhere a fight can be contested. It’s his time.
Just as there are two obstacles to my prediction coming true, there are also two paths to success. Should Jones continue to balk at an Aspinall fight — not out of fear, let’s be clear, but perhaps in angling for a massive payday — the UFC could strip him of his championship and either elevate Aspinall from interim champ to real champ or at least book him into a fight for a vacant title.
2. Middleweight: Khamzat Chimaev
I got ahead of myself when I predicted last December that Chimaev would end 2024 with the belt. The champion at the time was Sean Strickland, and he already had a title defense booked against Dricus Du Plessis. But I confidently proclaimed that whoever won last January’s fight would be “a stepping stone for Chimaev,” who I figured would then have to fend off the formidable challenge of an ex-champ, either Israel Adesanya or Robert Whittaker. I had it all backward. Du Plessis ended up winning the belt and successfully defending against Adesanya in August, and two months later, Chimaev tapped out Whittaker with shocking ease. So, now it’s Chimaev’s time?
Not quite, as the UFC has scheduled a Du Plessis-Strickland rematch for February. But in my stubborn opinion, the winner of that one will be — to coin a phrase — a stepping stone for Chimaev.
3. Welterweight: Shavkat Rakhmonov
Here’s another repeat prediction that was on the verge of coming true the first time (and rescuing my batting average!). Rakhmonov was booked for a title shot earlier this month at UFC 310, but the champ, Belal Muhammad, contracted an infection in his foot during training camp and had to withdraw. Robbed of his big moment, Rakhmonov boldly created a different one, taking a replacement fight against fellow undefeated fighter Ian Machado Garry. The result was mixed for Rakhmonov: He won the fight, but for the first time in his 19-bout career, he did not get a finish.
That would seem to give Muhammad and the rest of the 170-pounders a glimmer of hope against a guy who previously had been a runaway express train chugging toward title town. But even though the hype has lost a little steam, I’m still riding with Rakhmonov.
4. Men’s bantamweight: Umar Nurmagomedov
This prediction is risky in a couple of ways. First, Nurmagomedov will be tested by the relentless pace of the champ, Merab Dvalishvili, when they meet on Jan. 18 at UFC 311. And second, because that title fight is happening at the first pay-per-view of the year, a Nurmagomedov crowning would be just the first chapter of his 2025 story. He would spend nearly the whole year as the target of every top 135-pounder before I could pencil this forecast into the win column. But I believe the undefeated Dagestani is up for the challenge of continuing the MMA takeover by his family and team.
5. Women’s bantamweight: Kayla Harrison
The current champ, Julianna Peña, does not match up well with Harrison, who’ll almost certainly be the next title challenger. Peña relies heavily on her wrestling, so what will she do if she cannot hold her own on the canvas with the two-time Olympic judo gold medalist? Now that Harrison has twice succeeded in making the bantamweight limit after previously competing in a division 20 pounds heavier, she is a brawny threat to anyone who steps into the cage with her. Her one area of vulnerability is in stand-up fighting, but Harrison is getting ever more efficient at quickly closing in on her opponents and overwhelming them with her physicality and technical flair.
These champions are keepers
Alex Pereira, light heavyweight — He could lose to Magomed Ankalaev when the UFC gets around to booking that title fight. And even if Pereira handles the No. 1 contender, the champ’s level of activity should add up to multiple opportunities this year for me to be wrong. But even if Pereira has to win three fights for his reign to last through next December, I still believe.
Islam Makhachev, lightweight — He has what it takes to hold onto the belt for as long as he desires. That desire might not last, if Makhachev opts to step out of the way of rising teammate Usman Nurmagomedov. But Usman would first have to move from Bellator to the UFC, and I doubt that will happen within the next year.
Ilia Topuria, featherweight — If neither Alexander Volkanovski nor Max Holloway could dislodge the belt from Topuria, I don’t envision anyone else in the 145-pound division doing so — except maybe Topuria himself. He has expressed a desire to challenge for the lightweight title, but that move does not seem imminent.
Alexandre Pantoja, men’s flyweight — Who’s going to beat this guy? Is there a 125-pounder on the planet — outside of the Washington state retirement home where Demetrious Johnson now resides — who can give Pantoja a fight?
Valentina Shevchenko, women’s flyweight — She’s back on top, and while not as dominant as she once was, Shevchenko doesn’t seem especially vulnerable. At age 36, she’s approaching the end of the line, but she has at least one more year of greatness in her.
Zhang Weili, strawweight — Her Feb. 9 title defense against undefeated Tatiana Suarez won’t be a pushover, but if Zhang passes that test, the rest of the year is all hers.