Reform UK has grown in support to within one percentage point of Labour according to a new poll for Sky News by YouGov which suggests Britain has entered a new era of three-way party politics.
Sir Keir Starmer looks set to spend the parliament locked in a fight with two right-wing parties after Labour support dropped sharply in the first YouGov poll since the general election.
The poll shows the Tories have now been pushed into third place – two months after Kemi Badenoch was elected leader.
The data collected over the weekend puts Labour on 26%, Reform UK on 25%, Conservatives on 22%, Liberal Democrats on 14% and Greens on 8%.
This is a huge switch from the general election, when Labour was on 35%, Conservatives on 24%, Reform UK on 15%, Lib Dem on 13% and Greens on 7%.
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This is the first of YouGov’s weekly voting intention polls for Sky News, shared with The Times.
It reflects a drop in satisfaction with the government, a rise in support for Reform UK, and shows how the Labour vote has split in all directions since the election.
Labour has retained 54% of their vote at the general election – 7% have gone to the Lib Dems, 6% to the Green Party, 5% to Reform UK, 4% to the Tories – while 23% of those polled did not say, did not know or would not vote.
Reform UK’s vote has grown since the general election at the expense of all other parties, with 16% of voters who backed the Tories at the ballot last year now saying they’d support Reform.
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The judgement on Sir Keir’s first six months in office is damning, however.
Some 10% say the government has been successful while 60% say unsuccessful.
Older voters have turned away from Labour. Just 14% of over 65s would now vote Labour, down from 22% around the time of the election.
However, there are signs the Tory party remains a toxic brand. Reform UK are the least unpopular party, with a net favourability rating of -32, Labour a touch worse on -34 and the Tories down on -45.
YouGov interviewed 2,279 voters in Great Britain on Sunday 12 January and Monday 13 January.