Britain is forecast to hit “peak petrol” in 2024, according to a new report, with electric vehicles (EVs) on track to assume a much bigger share of the country’s car market.
Auto Trader said in an analysis published Wednesday that it expects the number of gasoline-powered cars on Britain’s roads to tumble by almost half over the next decade as drivers shift toward EVs.
The online vehicle platform estimates there were 18.7 million gasoline-powered cars on the country’s roads in 2024, although this figure is expected to steadily decline to just 11.1 million by 2034.
At the same time, it is expected the number of EVs on Britain’s roads will soar to 13.7 million over the next decade as affordability improves, up from 1.25 million in 2024.
The EV share of the new car market is projected to rise from roughly 18% this year to 23% in 2025, Auto Trader said, noting that this is still some way below the 28% target for sales under the U.K. government’s Zero Emissions Vehicle (ZEV) mandate.
“Peak petrol is a genuine landmark for the UK,” Auto Trader’s Commercial Director Ian Plummer said in the report.
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“We expect to see a seismic shift in British motoring over the next decade as the number of petrol cars falls by nearly half and EVs take a much bigger share,” he added.
“All this is happening against the backdrop of exceptionally strong used car demand despite a range of challenges for the industry, not least the introduction of ZEV targets, constrained supply, changing finance rules, and the Budget,” Plummer said.
ZEV mandate
Under the current rules, manufacturers are required to ensure that at least 22% of new cars sold are zero emission vehicles. This ZEV target is set to increase to 28% from next year, before rising to 80% by 2030 and 100% by 2035.
Britain’s center-left Labour government has faced calls to urgently consider reviewing the ZEV mandate, with demand for EVs flagging due to their relatively high costs.
The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders, a car lobby group, warned late last month that government targets were putting too much pressure on the industry, raising the potential for “devastating impacts” on business viability and jobs.
Last week, automotive giant Stellantis announced it planned to shut its Vauxhall van factory in Luton, southern England, in a move that put more than 1,000 jobs at risk.
A group of 14 NGOs, think tanks and campaign groups wrote an open letter to the U.K. government in mid-November, however, calling for the ZEV mandate to be upheld.
The group said the policy remains one of the country’s single biggest carbon saving measures and argued the current flexibilities provided to the car industry were sufficient.
A U.K. government spokesperson said it would soon bring forward a consultation to consider how to support the industry to reach its commitment to phase out the sale of new cars powered solely by internal combustion engines by 2030.
“We are alive to the global challenges the industry is facing,” a government spokesperson told CNBC via email, citing a £2 billion ($2.54 billion) investment to support the transition of domestic manufacturing and a budget announcement of over £300 million to drive the uptake of EVs.