The 2023 NHL draft was a pivotal moment for the Chicago Blackhawks — who selected Connor Bedard No. 1 overall — but the action wasn’t limited to the coronation of a new face of the franchise for Chicago.
Each team made improvements in one way or another during the course of the week, whether by using picks, trading them, or making player-for-player trades.
But in addition to all of the transactions, every NHL team also had its front-office staff on hand for the event, and our NHL reporting crew was there to get details on many topics: Rising Stanley Cup contenders for 2023-24, coaches on the hot seat, predictions for the Bedard-enhanced Blackhawks in Year 1, and much more.
Here are Ryan S. Clark, Kristen Shilton and Greg Wyshynski with the all the details from conversations with execs during a busy week in Nashville:
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What sort of impact will Connor Bedard have in his first season?
How many more games can he help the Chicago Blackhawks win? How many goals and points will he score next season? Could he have a better rookie year than Sidney Crosby or Connor McDavid? And can he fix Twitter, too?
While that last question is clearly far-fetched, it’s there to illustrate how players considered to be generational talents such as Bedard are often fairly or unfairly saddled with what can be viewed as unrealistic expectations from the outside world.
So what is the realistic expectation for Bedard?
“For me, the most dangerous thing for [the Blackhawks] is the expectation on him as the first overall pick,” one amateur scout told ESPN. “He’s uber talented and more than deserving of that spot. There’s no question. But it’s still hard to play in the NHL. It’s not the Western Hockey League. But that goes for any kid making the jump.”
One executive said they believe Bedard will immediately become an elite, impact player who receives top-line minutes. Their questions are more around how long will it take for Bedard to adjust to an NHL schedule in which he’ll have four games in six nights.
“If you’re talking statistically what are the expectations for him?” the executive said. “Can he be a 25-goal, 50-point guy who plays 18 minutes a night? I think he can. I think he can right away. I just think it’s the other items like how does he handle it if they lose? What if they’re not a good team? What if they’re at the bottom of the standings and he’s playing ‘meaningless games’ in March? How does he handle that? It’s part of the growth of a player and maturity of a player. Maybe not in that season, but down the road.”
The amateur scout stressed that one of the best ways for the Blackhawks to put Bedard in a position to succeed is by surrounding him with an experienced supporting cast. Some of that started before Bedard signed with the Blackhawks, trading for Taylor Hall and the rights to Nick Foligno with the latter signing a one-year extension.
“I think if Chicago can put some more good players around him and guys that have been in the league around him, that will help him with the transition and increase his level of success” the amateur scout said. “But if they throw him to the wolves and put him out there with a bunch of young guys all getting their feet wet at the same time? That’ll be hard.”
One of the points the amateur scout made was that Bedard, who is 5-foot-10, would be playing against the biggest, strongest and most mature competition of his career.
That led to another question: Could this mean his rookie year might look similar to that of Jack Hughes?
“Yeah, for sure. He’s more stout than Jack Hughes, who’s more of a leaner guy,” the amateur scout said. “I remember hearing guys say, ‘Oh, Jack Hughes is underproducing’ when it’s like, he’s not a big guy and he’s playing against men. The thing is both those guys are really smart and they’ll figure out how to play. That takes time, right? It’s not going to be one or five or 10 games. It’ll be 30, just like it is for junior kids that jump from high school to junior. A kid at Christmastime could look a lot different than the one you see in September.” — Clark
Connor Bedard: The goal is to win a Stanley Cup with the Blackhawks
Connor Bedard discusses getting a text from Sidney Crosby and why he wants to bring a Stanley Cup to the Blackhawks.
While this season’s unrestricted free agent class wasn’t exactly top of the charts, the Class of 2024 is banger after banger.
Among those currently scheduled to go UFA: Toronto Maple Leafs center Auston Matthews and winger William Nylander, Tampa Bay Lightning center Steven Stamkos, Carolina Hurricanes center Sebastian Aho, Los Angeles Kings center Anze Kopitar, Winnipeg Jets center Mark Scheifele and goalie Connor Hellebuyck, Pittsburgh Penguins winger Jake Guentzel, Vegas Golden Knights Conn Smythe winner Jonathan Marchessault, Colorado Avalanche defenseman Devon Toews and Florida Panthers defenseman Brandon Montour.
Some of these players might make it all the way to the opening bell of 2024 free agency, but the majority of them will have new contracts by then.
Matthews, 25, falls into that latter category, despite the absolute blast it would have been to play the speculation game with a generational goal-scoring talent. He’s going to still be a Toronto Maple Leaf. He’s said this publicly. He has communicated this privately to team management.
It’s just a question of how long and for how much. And that’s a tricky question.
Matthews is entering the final season of a five-year, $58,195,000 contract that carried an average annual value of $11,640,250. It was a contract worth 14.64% of the salary cap when he signed it in Feb. 2019 under then-general manager Kyle Dubas.
Let’s dispel one thing right away: It won’t be a “max contract.” Sources close to Matthews said he understands that seeking that kind of contract within the NHL’s salary cap structure — and that of the Maple Leafs — would be a surefire way to be portrayed as a villain and to hinder the Leafs’ ability to maintain a winning roster around him. That’s just how the NHL cap system is set up — if only Matthews were in the NBA, land of the “super max” contracts for superstar players …
The highest-paid player in the NHL currently, based on average annual value, is Avalanche star Nathan MacKinnon at $12.6 million AAV. That is $100,000 more annually than Connor McDavid’s cap hit ($12.5 million AAV) with the Edmonton Oilers. MacKinnon’s cap hit was 15.27% of the cap this past season.
There has been speculation that Matthews could use that contract as a benchmark, but I believe his camp has another number in mind: The NHL salary cap ceiling, and its expected escalation after this season.
General managers are telling agents in negotiations that they expect the cap will go to $88 million in 2024-25. After that, it will climb to $92 million in 2025-26 and $96 million in 2026-27. MacKinnon’s contract would count as 13.1% of the cap in 2026-27, the fourth year of his deal. So the Matthews talks aren’t focused on what anyone else is making, but rather what the Leafs star’s contract should look like, percentage-wise, as the salary cap rises.
He’s also aware of how the Leafs’ salary cap situation changes after his new contract begins: Matthews’ second contract year will come after John Tavares‘ last contract year, freeing up $11 million in cap space.
As for duration, I’ve heard “short to midrange” on a Matthews contract, which tells me it won’t be seven or eight years. It could be five years. It could be six years. Remember, agent Judd Moldaver, who represents Matthews, secured a five-year term for him on their last deal — which should have been a template-setting deal for other stars, but wasn’t for some reason.
Matthews is expected to have a new contract before the start of training camp, putting any speculation about his future to bed. It’s not like the Leafs need that conjecture on top of everything else that swirls around the team on a daily basis. Besides, William Nylander might have the market cornered on contract drama if reports are correct. — Wyshynski
Opinions vary for who could be the best non-Bedard player in draft class
Much like the NHL draft itself, nobody was debating who’s No. 1. As for who could go second or who is the second-best player in the draft? That did generate a debate. Leo Carlsson, Adam Fantilli, Matvei Michkov and Will Smith were among the names who’d been mentioned when it came to the discussion of who could go second to the Anaheim Ducks.
The Ducks drafted Carlsson, with Fantilli going third to the Columbus Blue Jackets. Smith went fourth to the San Jose Sharks while Michkov, who was considered to be the most mysterious prospect in the draft, was selected seventh by the Philadelphia Flyers.
So who do execs say was the best non-Bedard player in the class?
“I thought Carlsson was an underrated player just perception-wise in some lists and mock drafts that I saw,” one executive said. “I think he’s going to be the second-best player in this draft. [He has] hockey sense, [is] smart, and sees the ice well. He’s not flashy but he’s consistent. I did not see a lot of holes in his game. I love Fantilli too, but if I had to rank them, I’d put Carlsson ahead of Fantilli.”
Another executive said that from a pure talent standpoint the answer was Michkov.
The second executive said Michkov’s talent level and what he has done over the past two years has allowed him to break records in Russia.
“All he does is score goals. So, from a pure upside standpoint, I think he has a chance to be a difference-maker that very few players have,” the second executive said.
So what did the second executive say was the reason behind why Michkov went seventh when he potentially could have gone higher?
“Every organization sort of calculates risk differently,” the second executive explained. “It’s challenging because I don’t know what they value because at the end of the day you can evaluate the player’s talent and look at risk differently. Getting that player at seven, you’re not going to get a better player at seven.” — Clark
Matvei Michkov had to be the most polarizing player drafted (from the top 10, anyway).
The handful of executives I polled had disparate opinions on Philadelphia’s seventh overall pick, ranging from incredibly positive (as in, Michkov could be the steal of this year’s class) to less enthusiastic (as in, there are too many question marks to be comfortable using a selection that high for him).
One Metropolitan Division exec focused more on what the move meant for Philadelphia than on the player himself. Given Michkov is signed in the KHL through 2025-26, the Flyers might not see him in their lineup for years. Still, Philly didn’t back down from picking the best player (at least to their eye) with their top choice.
“Rebuilds fail all the time when front offices get greedy and impatient; we’ve seen it a thousand times,” the exec said. “If [Philadelphia] does this [rebuild] low-and-slow, which it seems like they will do given the Michkov thing, then you’re going to see them have a truer chance of actually being better on the other side. It’s the right move for them in that respect.”
And on the dissenting front:
“I would have advised against it,” another team exec said. “Is the player talented? Yes. Is the potential there? Sure. But if [we’re] picking in the top 8 it’s got to be with as close to 100 percent confidence as humanly possible in that [prospect]. For a lot of reasons I wouldn’t have been there with Michkov [at 7].” — Shilton
Are any coaches and general managers on the hot seat?
Perhaps the most telling response came from an executive who didn’t want to provide a name but chose to offer a context clue instead.
The executive said the most likely GMs who could be under the hot seat are the ones who are going through an ownership change.
Another executive was more direct in saying Ottawa Senators GM Pierre Dorion would be one of his answers.
“He’s been there a while, they haven’t really gotten even close to the playoffs to be honest with you,” the other executive said. “I just think he’s probably a guy that with new ownership would be on the hot seat.”
The second executive said that Blue Jackets GM Jarmo Kekalainen could be on the hot seat.
“Jarmo, it’s the same thing. They’ve had some up-and-down years,” the executive said. “He’s been there a long time as well. I think he’s a guy who has been through a few coaches now and expectations have now become, ‘Let’s win and let’s win now.’ He got [Ivan] Provorov and [Damon] Severson and has made some moves to say, ‘Let’s win now’ and so, they have to.”
The second executive said the two coaches who he believed could be on the hot set going into next season were the Senators’ D.J. Smith and the St. Louis Blues‘ Craig Berube.
“With Berube, the expectations are high there every year to win,” the second executive explained. “They won the Cup in ’19, had the COVID year in ’20, in ’21 they lost early in the playoffs and in ’22 they had what I felt was a good year but with them missing the playoffs, I think he could be on the hot seat. But my No. 1 is D.J. Smith in Ottawa.” — Clark
I talked with one assistant GM who wondered aloud if the recent wave of newly instated head coaches having quick success with their new teams wouldn’t spark a wave of changes early in the coming season.
“Look at Vegas, look at Florida, look at Dallas,” he said. “Coach steps in, team responds, and they’re going deep in the playoffs. Boston obviously had the great regular season too with a new coach. Is there a correlation to consider? Or was it just a coincidence? I wouldn’t be surprised if we see some coaches on an especially short leash this fall.”
He went on to say that offseason coaching hires are obviously different than making a switch in-season. Then again, if a team has someone waiting in the wings — with their minor league affiliate or an assistant on the current staff — it’s easier to pull that trigger without too much disruption.
“Change for change’s sake won’t always end well,” he added. “But it’s a copycat league, right? Whatever is working is going to be adopted by someone, somewhere.” — Shilton
The multiheaded goalie trend
Yes, the NHL is notorious for being a copycat league. Sometimes that means mimicking a successful team’s style of play — if one team wins with physicality, everyone beefs up the next summer, for example.
The lesson some teams are taking from the Golden Knights’ Stanley Cup victory? It’s that you can never have enough goalies.
Adin Hill won the Cup — and secured a new two-year deal with Vegas — as one of five goalies the Golden Knights used last season. That was because a sixth goalie, 2021-22 start Robin Lehner, underwent offseason surgery that put him on the shelf for the season. Through Laurent Brossoit, Logan Thompson and Jonathan Quick, it was Hill who emerged as the healthy goalie who got hot at the right time.
Some teams are blessed with a star goalie like Igor Shesterkin, a luxury that will allow the Rangers to have the 37-year-old, in-decline Quick as their backup this season. Others aren’t so lucky, and what we’re seeing now is what Vegas did last season: Throwing a bunch of options at the problem.
The Kings entered the offseason with Pheonix Copley under contract. They signed Cam Talbot and David Rittich. Total cost for their goaltending battery: $3.375 million, or less than what Hill will make alone for Vegas next season ($4.9 million). They wanted options, and now they have them — and could have even more by the trade deadline. Remember, GM Rob Blake aggressively added Joonas Korpisalo at last season’s deadline.
The Detroit Red Wings had Ville Husso under contract heading into the offseason. They added veterans James Reimer and Alex Lyon via free agency. Their total cost is a bit higher: $7.150 million, most of that from Husso ($4.750 million AAV). But again, they now have options — please recall that Lyon was the third goalie for the Panthers last season, and helped get them into the playoffs with a strong run down the stretch.
For all its success, it’s not like Vegas invented the multigoalie thing. The Hurricanes have done it for a few seasons now. Frederik Andersen and Antti Raanta are back again, joining 24-year-old Pyotr Kochetkov in the mix. All three combine for $6.9 million against the cap, although Kochetkov can linger in the AHL.
New Jersey Devils GM Tom Fitzgerald joked that his team started the multigoalie trend when they were forced to play seven of them in 2021-22 because of injuries. He told ESPN that the team would like to add a veteran before the season. The Devils shipped out Mackenzie Blackwood to the Sharks and have Vitek Vanecek and Akira Schmid under contract. — Wyshynski
Who are the way-too-early favorites to win the Stanley Cup?
One executive joked that they wanted to say their team was the favorite to win the Stanley Cup, before adding that the New Jersey Devils appear to be one of the front-runners to win it all.
The executive said they’re fond of how the Devils have a balance in that they are a team that can score goals, as well as limit goals and scoring chances with their defensive structure. They also have several key players who are signed to long-term deals.
“It’s their time and they’re going to be a fun team to watch,” the executive said.
But? And yes, there is a but coming.
The executive said the biggest concern regarding the Devils would be their situation in net with Akira Schmid and Vitek Vanecek.
“I think they’ve got to get a goalie. Either one of those two guys steps up, or they get a guy who can do it at crunch time,” the executive said.
The second executive didn’t choose the Devils, but the team that beat the Devils to reach the Eastern Conference finals, the Carolina Hurricanes.
The second executive said the overall consistency the Hurricanes showed by reaching the playoffs the past few years, and that each season has brought them a step closer in the discussion of legitimate contenders.
“I think when you look at what they did in the playoffs with missing some of those goal scorers and they have them in the lineup, they may have been able to get to the Stanley Cup Final,” the executive said. “But year after year, they play the same way. Rod Brind’Amour is able to do so much to get everyone to buy in and you have to believe in that consistency.” — Clark
Investing in analytics is no longer just for NHL teams
It’s now making its way to college and junior programs.
The amateur scout who spoke to ESPN said that more junior leagues and teams are starting to provide the necessary data points in order for NHL teams to fully utilize what they can do with analytics.
Part of the challenge for high school and junior programs to provide analytics in recent years was the resources — or lack thereof — that were available to them. The scout said that at least the junior leagues have found ways to invest in the sort of technology needed that makes it easier for teams to collect data.
“Junior leagues are much better with a lot of the teams incorporating HD cameras in their buildings,” the amateur scout said. “Getting high school information is still a challenge, but in any of the main junior leagues all their stuff is online. I think the primary focus is on the CHL, USHL, college hockey and the main junior leagues in Europe. All of that is out there and it’s easy to get and click on.”
The amateur scout said there are more third-party companies that offer services that NHL teams can use should they want to obtain collegiate or junior data. They added that there are college and/or junior teams that can also offer NHL teams data because more of them are creating staffs designed to collect that information.
“Now, the biggest thing is figuring out how you use it and incorporate it into what you do as a scout,” the amateur scout said. “I don’t think there’s a perfect answer for that. That will improve with time. That will take years of drafting and who you drafted and how it will work out and if this was a good pick or a bad pick. Even then, you’re talking about humans. We’re not always right, we’re not always predictable. I’m not a predictable scout day-to-day. I have good days and bad days. There will always be that unknown element. But I think as time goes on that the data will get more and more honed in.” — Clark
Karlsson trade talks
In Nashville to pick up his third Norris Trophy, Erik Karlsson made it fairly obvious that he wants out of San Jose as soon as possible.
“I’ve played with too many guys throughout my career that are amazing players and should be winners and should have won that never did. I don’t want to be that guy. I want to win,” he said, via NHL.com. “That’s not to say that I’m going to win. I want an opportunity to win. If that opportunity is not in San Jose right now within my timeline, then that’s just the unfortunate part of business.”
The Sharks have been efforting a Karlsson trade for some time. He’s coming off a dominant offensive season for a team that didn’t score much. He had 101 points in 82 games, including a career-high 25 goals. But he’s 33 years old. He has four years left on a contract that counts $11.5 million against the salary cap per season — he’s owed $38 million in actual salary over the next four seasons.
It’s been reported that the Hurricanes were one team in pursuit of Karlsson, even after securing the services of defenseman Dmitry Orlov on the first day of free agency. The Penguins were also in on Karlsson. Interim GM Kyle Dubas addressed that in his July 1 press conference: “When there’s a player like that who comes available, I think it’s incumbent on me to reach out and see if there’s a fit there for us.”
I know Karlsson has an affinity for playing with either Florida team. There have been reports that the Seattle Kraken could be after him, too.
Chris Johnston of TSN reports that the Sharks granted a handful of teams permission to speak with Karlsson, who has a no-movement clause. So that’s another positive toward something happening with him.
But that contract remains a real obstacle in getting a deal done. Sources told ESPN that the Sharks could retain salary on Karlsson, but they aren’t likely to retain 50% as many had hoped. That means it either falls to the acquiring team to pick up that salary, or there’s going to have to be some creative brokering with a third trade partner retaining part of the salary. That is easy to do at the trade deadline on an expiring deal, and a bit harder when there are four years remaining on a contract like Karlsson’s. — Wyshynski